Will Home Affordability Improve in 2026? What Actually Matters for Buyers

If you have been asking, “Will home affordability finally improve in 2026?” you are not alone. It is one of the most common questions I am getting right now.

The honest answer: some parts of affordability are improving, but the biggest opportunity for buyers is not just waiting on a perfect headline. It is understanding how affordability works and building a plan around today’s real numbers.

Affordability has more than one moving part

Most people think “affordable” means “prices come down.” Price matters, but affordability is really the combination of:

• Home price

• Household income

• Mortgage rates

• The structure of the deal (credits, concessions, and cash to close)

That is why the same home can feel affordable for one buyer and impossible for another.

1) Wages are rising, but it takes time to feel it

Income growth helps. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported real average hourly earnings increased 1.1% from December 2024 to December 2025. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm

That is good news, but affordability improvements from income growth typically show up gradually. Buyers often do not feel a major “switch flip” overnight, especially when housing costs are still elevated in many markets.

2) Mortgage rates could offer breathing room, but plan on a range

Mortgage rates are a major lever for monthly payment, so even small moves can change qualification and buying power.

One widely followed forecast from Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group projects the 30-year fixed rate averaging around 6.0% in 2026. https://www.fanniemae.com/data-and-insights/forecast

Important note: forecasts can change. The point is not to bet everything on one number. The point is to build a strategy that works in a realistic range, and be ready to act when the right opportunity shows up.

3) The biggest shift: negotiation power

Here is what many buyers are not paying enough attention to: leverage.

Realtor.com reported active listings were up 12.1% year over year in December 2025. https://www.realtor.com/research/december-2025-data/

More inventory often means more options. More options can mean more seller flexibility, depending on your market and the specific home. That flexibility can look like:

• Closing cost credits

• Seller concessions

• Price adjustments

• Repairs or improvements negotiated into the deal

This matters because affordability is not only about the number on the listing. It is also about the structure of the deal and how the monthly payment lands for you.

What to do if you are thinking about buying in 2026

If you are waiting for the market to make buying “easy,” you might be waiting a while.

A smarter approach is:

1. Define a payment range that feels comfortable

2. Run scenarios (down payment, credits, concessions, cash to close)

3. Build a plan that works even if the market moves slowly

That is how you make progress without guessing.

Want to run a quick scenario?

If you want to run a quick scenario based on your numbers and today’s market, DM me. No pressure. Just real numbers and a clear plan.

Shelby Pennix
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Sources (for readers who want to explore):

• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Real Earnings): https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm

• Realtor.com Research (Monthly Housing Trends): https://www.realtor.com/research/

• Fannie Mae Forecast (Economic and Housing Outlook): https://www.fanniemae.com/data-and-insights/forecast